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Kas poliitikatoetus soodustab tarbimise taastumist? Nõudluse ja pakkumise mäng polüetüleeniturul jätkub

Praeguste teadaolevate hoolduskahjude põhjal on oodata, et augustikuu polüetüleenitehase hoolduskaod võrreldes eelmise kuuga oluliselt vähenevad. Lähtudes sellistest kaalutlustest nagu kulukasum, hooldus ja uute tootmisvõimsuste kasutuselevõtt, eeldatakse, et 2024. aasta augustist detsembrini polüetüleeni tootmine ulatub 11,92 miljoni tonnini, mis on 0,34% rohkem kui aasta varem.

Erinevate alltööstuste senistest tulemustest on järk-järgult käivitatud sügisesed reservtellimused põhjaregioonis, kus tegutseb 30% -50% suurtehastest ning teised väikesed ja keskmise suurusega tehased saavad hajutatud tellimusi. Since the beginning of this year's Spring Festival, holiday arrangements have shown strong scalability, with more abundant and diverse holiday arrangements. For consumers, this means more frequent and flexible travel choices, while for businesses, it means more peak business seasons and longer service windows. The period from August to early September covers multiple consumption nodes such as the second half of summer vacation, the start of school season, Mid Autumn Festival, and National Day holidays. Downstream demand often increases to a certain extent, but from the perspective of 2023, the overall downstream demand of the plastic products industry is weak.

From the comparison of changes in apparent consumption of polyethylene in China, the cumulative apparent consumption of polyethylene from January to June 2024 was 19.6766 million tons, an increase of 3.04% year-on-year, and the apparent consumption of polyethylene showed a positive growth . According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to July this year, China's automobile production and sales reached 16.179 million and 16.31 million respectively, an increase of 3.4% and 4.4% year-on-year. Looking at the comparative data over the years, the apparent consumption of polyethylene in the second half of the year is generally better than that in the first half. For example, in some e-commerce promotion activities, sales of home appliances, home furnishings and other products often increase significantly. Based on e-commerce festivals and residents' consumption habits, the consumption level in the second half of the year is generally higher than that in the first half.

The growth of apparent consumption is mainly due to the increase in capacity expansion and export contraction in the second half of the year. At the same time, there are continuous macroeconomic favorable policies, which have boosted the real estate, infrastructure, daily necessities and other fields to varying degrees, providing financial activity and confidence support for consumption in the second half of the year. According to statistics, from January to June 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 2.3596 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%. Recently, many regions have introduced preferential policies to continuously boost bulk consumption and accelerate the recovery of consumption in key areas. Lisaks on riiklik arengu- ja reformikomisjon koos asjakohaste osakondade ja üksustega riiklik arengu- ja reformi komisjoni uute kasvupunktide kasvatamiseks ja edendamiseks uurinud ja sõnastanud "uute tarbimisstsenaariumide loomise ja uue kasvu kasvatamise meetmed uue tarbimisstsenaariumide loomise ning uue kasvu arendamise edendamiseks. Points in Consumption", which will provide assistance for further recovery of the consumer market.


Postitusaeg: 19. august 2024